Wednesday 5 May 2010

HOURS TO GO: Bookie's odds narrow...

MORE than 160,000 people in North Devon and Torridge will have the opportunity to change the course of history by voting in the general election tomorrow.

There are 84,719 electors in North Devon and 75,930 in Torridge and the majority will visit local polling booths which are open between 7am and 10pm on Thursday, May 6.

Voters who were newborn babes when John Major beat Neil Kinnock in 1992 will be able to vote for the first time, while the oldest voters will remember when Winston Churchill was prime minister.

About 14% of votes have already been cast by post, the highest number ever. And there are nine candidates in North Devon and six in Torridge (full list below), one of the longest lists ever locally.

In the past two months the bookmaker Ladbrokes has narrowed the odds between the two favourite candidates in each constituency.

In February, Ladbrokes had North Devon’s Lib Dem candidate Nick Harvey as the clear favourite to win on 4/6 and his main rival, the Conservative Philip Milton, on 11/10.

Those odds would have meant a £67 payout on a £100 bet on Mr Harvey winning and £110 on Mr Milton winning, meaning Mr Harvey was more the more probable winner.

Now Ladbrokes has Mr Harvey on 1/4, which would net a payout of £25 on a £100 stake and Mr Milton on 5/2, which would bring a £250 win.

The change in odds mean Ladbrokes believes Mr Harvey has become more likely to win.

The Torridge Lib Dem candidate, Adam Symons, has also seen his odds of winning improve in recent weeks.

In February, Ladbrokes had Mr Symons on 7/1 which would have meant a £700 payout on a £100 bet if he won. Conservative candidate Geoffrey Cox was at 1/20, meaning a £100 bet would have netted just £5.

But now Mr Cox has slipped down to 2/7, meaning he is still the favourite but his win would now result in a £29 return on £100.

And Mr Symons is now on 5/2, meaning a £100 bet on him to win would result in a £250 payout if he won.

The change in the odds means the bookmaker believes Mr Symons now has a better chance of winning than he did in February.

All the other parties have remained at 100/1 to win; if you put a £100 bet on any of them, and they won, you would get £10,000.

The North Devon candidates are, in alphabetical order:
Mark Cann (Labour)
Rodney Cann (Independent)
Stephen Crowther (United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP)
Nick Harvey (Liberal Democrat)
L’Anne Knight (Green Party)
Gary Marshall (British National Party, BNP)
Philip Milton (Conservative)
Gerrard Sables (Communist Party of Britain)

Nigel Vidler (English Democrats)

The Torridge and West Devon candidates are, in alphabetical order:
Nick Baker (British National Party, BNP)
Geoffrey Cox (Conservative)
Darren Jones (Labour)
Robin Julian (United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP)
Cathrine Simmons (Green Party)
Adam Symons (Liberal Democrat)


  • You do not need your polling card to vote; you can just turn up at the polling station.
  • The count in North Devon starts as soon as the ballot boxes start arriving after 10pm and a result is expected at around 3.30am.
  • Torridge will start counting on Friday morning and a result is expected late morning.
  • The Journal will be at the counts and will publish the results and reactions when we get them on our website at www.thisisnorthdevon.co.uk and in next week's paper.

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